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    5. 財訊雙週刊(第346期/2010年5月13日--上

    財訊雙週刊(第346期/2010年5月13日--上

    Publisher 財訊雙週刊 /財信雜誌社
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    Released
    2010/11/05
    Language
    Traditional Chinese
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    88
    ID
    2273
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    光靠ECFA能挽救低迷的支持度嗎?

    馬英九再戰2012的5大挑戰


    今年五二○,馬英九總統任期屆半,適逢ECFA(兩岸經濟合作架構協議)簽署前夕,正是台灣未來發展的關鍵點、兩岸關係的轉折點。



    他這四年的任期,上半場風風雨雨,支持度由當選時的七成多,一路急轉直下,一度跌破兩成。現在則因兩岸「和平利多」發酵,在中國對台讓利挹注下,讓他的施政滿意度止跌回升。但下半場是否能就此一路攻堅向上,直達二○一二連任寶座,中間還有重重障礙考驗著他。



    「只要沒有結構性的毀滅事件,像兩岸開戰、國際金融海嘯、超級天災發生,又有吳敦義、金溥聰的強烈互補,應該不會有重大錯誤發生,」國民黨立委吳育昇認為。



    不過,由馬、金、吳所組成的國民黨政權鐵三角,最擅長政治表演,但當台灣社會面對財富分配愈來愈不公平、貧富差距愈來愈大時,這個超穩定結構是否有能力解決經濟社會各種矛盾現象?



    挑戰1:簽ECFA

    抗爭、公投、修法吵不完



    馬英九必須面對的第一個執政挑戰:簽ECFA是不是經濟特效藥?



    馬英九在雙英辯論時聲稱,簽ECFA可以增加國內二十六萬個就業機會,GDP(國內生產毛額)成長率可以上升一.六五個百分點,經濟前景一片大好……。但簽ECFA後,若經濟情勢發展不如預期,重蹈六三三跳票覆轍,那麼把所有籌碼全押在ECFA上,而且除此之外沒有其他重大財經施政的馬政府,恐怕高失業、高房價、低薪資所釀成的民怨足以撼動馬英九政權。



    「ECFA簽了,才是問題的開始,」一位民間智庫要角分析,根據他們與中國的私下接觸了解,等下半年進入ECFA補充協議談判期,對方的早收清單(也就是我方的早損清單)出來,發現人家看上的是台灣的金融、電信、媒體、航空、服務業,而且只要開放陸資來台,馬上錢進北部商業區和南部工業區,到時房價炒得更高,政府就真的該頭痛了。



    依國民黨過去兩年「企業先富起來,再求均等」的施政邏輯來看,簽了ECFA後,在社會欠缺共識下,可能碰到極大反彈。立即受害的敏感弱勢產業受害者,聲音叫得肯定比立即得到好處的企業大,屆時結合反對黨勢力,力推ECFA公投,不僅社會抗爭力道加大,益發凸顯分配不均、貧富差距擴大等內部矛盾,將增加國會修法配合關稅減讓的難度。朝野對立,政治攻防不斷,終日吵吵嚷嚷勢不可免。
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    Released
    2010/11/05
    Language
    Traditional Chinese
    File format
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    ID
    2273

    紀淑芳

    陳良榕

    陳雅潔

    何昭陽

    田習如

    鐵三角

    馬英九

    ECFA

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