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    6. 偶爾言中─林中斌前瞻短評

    偶爾言中─林中斌前瞻短評

    Publisher 黎明文化
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    Released
    2008/10/01
    Language
    Traditional Chinese
    File format
    PDF (36MB), fit in large screen and Pubook
    Pages
    313
    ID
    21725
    ISBN
    9789571607818
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    "誰說世事難料!
    黑人當選美國總統,您相信嗎?本書作者林中斌教授早已大膽預測。
      他過去準確預測了九五及九六年台海危機的發生、布希當選與連任、江澤民辭軍委會主席、二○○七及○八年台灣經濟更糟……,這些事後都證明了他洞燭機先的智慧,預判每每言中。他是如何精準掌握並預測各種事件呢?本書將會提供您想要知道的方法與答案。
      這是一本剖析安全戰略和兩岸事務的書,由作者的六十篇短評綜整而成,內容從二○○四年至二○○八年,期間時局多變,作者洞燭機先,預判每每言中,又文簡意賅,故稱「前瞻短評」。
      全書共分八章,依序為:一、變色的星條旗;二、東風微笑化西風;三、巧戰而屈人之兵;四、智者以小事大;五、隱藏火焰的巨龍;六、走出民主陣痛;七、全球暖化還有磁變;八、以智取勝(一九九五–九六年台海危機預警)。書後附件尚有國際報刊上所發表之英文短評共十一篇,以及索引以便讀者依出版時間查閱。
      每章標題有其背景,「變色的星條旗」側重於美國政情;「東風微笑化西風」係從東北亞的戰略格局說起;「巧戰而屈人之兵」著眼於中共的對台方略;「智者以小事大」是以台灣的對策為出發點;「隱藏火焰的巨龍」是描繪崛起而柔軟的中國;「走出民主陣痛」是作者對台灣的期許;「全球暖化還有磁變」呼籲國人正視非傳統安全的挑戰;「以智取勝」乃作者預測世局之範例。
      全書脈絡,按區域安全、兩岸關係、美中台各自國情,依序展開。置於全書之前為作者之方法論:「趨勢觀察:從失敗中獲取心得」。此短文綜合作者的研判經驗以回饋同好,值得讀者諸君細心品味共享。每章首頁,均有導讀,簡明勾勒每章的屬性及其特點,每篇短評均附上見諸於報章期刊的原始文檔,以作為印證。
      本書極難能可貴之處是作者透過其多年紮實的學術訓練及獨特的研究方法,每每能精準預測事件發生的結果,並願將此心得無私的公諸於世,誠如作者於序言中所指出:「近年來,我寫過一些短評,包括情勢的觀察、對台灣社會心態和政府運作的獻言、對兩岸和美國各方政府的建議。動機無非是盡一介書生的責任:希望促進社會的和諧、增加政府的效率、減少兩岸彼此的誤判和我方外交的失策。」
     "
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    "林中斌
    經歷:國防部軍政副部長、國家安全會議諮詢委員、行政院大陸委員會第一副主委兼發言人、中山大學政研究所教授兼所長、美國喬治城大學外交學院及政治系教授、華府智庫「美國企業研究院」專任學者兼亞洲部副主任、美國丹佛爾曼威爾公司資深地理師。
    學歷:美國喬治城大學政系碩士、博士(1986)、加州洛杉磯大學企管碩士(1975)、保齡格綠大學地質碩士(1969)、台灣大學地質系學士(1965)
    著作:發表專書包括英文:《中共核武戰略》、《明日中國大陸》等,中文:《核霸—透視跨世紀中共戰略武力》、《龍威—中國的力量與核戰略》等。發表之學術論文登載於共廿九種國際雜誌及報刊。
    訪問:在國外研究教學期間,曾接受主要國際電視及電台訪問,如:BBC、CBC、CBS、CNN、PBS、VOA。言論出現在國際期刊,如新聞週刊、美國新聞及世界報導、遠東經濟評論等。
    原則:居留北美廿九年,未入外國國籍。平生未入國內外任何政黨。
    ■現任職於淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所教授、中華歐亞基金會執行長。
    "
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    Details

    Released
    2008/10/01
    Language
    Traditional Chinese
    File format
    PDF: Fit in large screen
    Provide Adobe DRM
    Provide PDF
    Offer DRM free license
    Yes
    ID
    21725
    ISBN
    9789571607818

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