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    5. 大師輕鬆讀 No.170 中國市場的火線教訓
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    大師輕鬆讀 No.170 中國市場的火線教訓

    Publisher 大師輕鬆讀 /大師輕鬆讀股份有限公司
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    Released
    2006/03/23
    Language
    Traditional Chinese
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    Pages
    68
    ID
    10706
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    中國市場的火線教訓
    One Billion Customers

    中國的變化令世界不知所措,世界的中國夢令中國人不知所措!
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    本期目錄:

    ● 五分鐘摘要

    ● 中國市場的火線教訓

    - 見解1 北京
    - 見解2 談判技巧
    - 見解3 合資企業
    - 見解4 商業倫理
    - 見解5 官僚體系
    - 見解6 遊說
    - 見解7 政治審查
    - 見解8 政府規畫
    - 見解9 創新

    ● 在地觀點—— 台商在大陸不必用血淚做生意/ 王承惠

    ● 大師知識看板—— 行動美學狂想曲開「駛」/ 經濟日報


    主題看板:

    13億消費者(1.3 Billion Consumers)

    2005年1月6日凌晨0時2分,中國大陸人口「正式」達到13億人(部分專家相信實際已逼近16億)。13億人口除了代表低廉的人工,更代表了強大的消費能力,正如中國總理溫家寶的比喻,一樣東西乘上13億人口,消費規模就非常驚人。但是,是不是真的存在「13億消費者」的市場?根據中國國家統計局發布的《2005年全國1%人口抽樣調查主要數據公報》顯示,中國大陸農村人口仍占多數,有57.01%。截至2004年底,農村年人均純收入在668元人民幣以下的有2,610萬人,在668到924元之間的有4,977萬人。而各大城市中,也有約2,000萬人倚賴政府的最低生活保障補助。以消費人口來說,綜合國外多項調查顯示,中國大陸真正有消費能力的人,其實大約是8,000萬人到1億人,而中國國家信息中心的官員則指出,中國大陸在未來5年,會有2億人口進入中產階級消費群。即使2億人口占中國大陸總人口的比例仍然很小,卻已經是全台灣2,300百萬人口的10倍了。

    政府規畫(Government Planning)

    中共從1953年開始仿效前蘇聯的作法,每5年推出新的官方計畫,作為計畫經濟最主要的手段之一。其中除了因為大躍進和人民公社失敗導致經濟蕭條,而在1963年到1965年中斷過3年之外,到2005年為止一共實施了10個5年計畫,分別稱為「一五計畫」、「二五計畫」……「十五計畫」。一五計畫(1953∼1957),目標是藉由前蘇聯的幫助建立工業化基礎。當時毛澤東說:「飛機和汽車,我們一定要有。」二五計畫(1958∼1962),推行「大躍進」、「大煉鋼鐵」,導致中國經濟全面倒退。三五、四五計畫(1966∼1975),正值文化大革命和中蘇衝突,以國防建設為主,帶動了石油工業的發展。那時有句順口溜:「寧可少活20年,拚命也要拿下大油田。」五五計畫(1976∼1980),由鄧小平主導調整產業結構布局,加重輕工業的發展比例。六五計畫(1981∼1985),開始改革農業經濟,出現了養雞、養鴨等「專業戶」,工業方面則以家電業發展最力。七五計畫(1986∼1990),著重交通運輸和通信的發展,開通了中國第一條高速公路,「個體戶」也開始大量出現。八五計畫(1991∼1995),開始新階段改革開放和現代化建設,房地產、金融業逐漸熱絡。九五計畫(1996∼2000),以擴大內需為主軸,推動旅遊、資訊、諮詢顧問等服務產業,並且導正金融、保險業和房地產業的發展。

    十五計畫(2001∼2005),強調發展高科技產業,用資訊化帶動工業化。網路的發展,是這個時期的重點,前新浪網執行長王志東曾說:「互聯網發展,就像一次新文化運動」。2005年10月,中共通過了「十一五規畫」。改稱規畫而不叫計畫,是為了表明中共改革的意圖,希望從政府主導的計畫經濟,轉型成市場經濟,但是中國媒體普遍認為,中共對經濟發展的主導作用會不減反增。
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