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    5. 酒訊雜誌8月號/2024第217期 日威戰國時代來臨
    日本威士忌 將續寫神話or泡沫化?

    酒訊雜誌8月號/2024第217期 日威戰國時代來臨

    Publisher 酒訊雜誌 /酒訊文化事業股份有限公司
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    日本威士忌的次級市場行情,最近似乎有些盤軟,你是否擔心自己收藏的日威以後不威了?

    十年前,在國際競賽金牌及日劇《阿政與愛莉》等因素的推波助瀾下,日本的山崎、竹鶴等威士忌被一舉推上神壇。神龍吸水式的需求增長,不僅導致三得利等大廠供應青黃不接,行情十倍速飆升,在這股風潮席捲下,連一些所謂的「假日威」都雞犬升天,大發利市,因而引發了日本的投機式建廠潮。

    據「日本威士忌文化研究所」的數據顯示,日本威士忌蒸餾廠在2014年前後僅有12間,但是到了2023年底已暴增至97間,若加上目前已有建廠計劃者,總數將達到114間!

    不過日本的蒸餾廠以小型居多,產能大都在幾萬至幾十萬公升,全國的年產能總和,還比不上蘇格蘭前兩大酒廠加起來那麼多,就廣闊的全球市場而言,只要有一定的需求形成,分分鐘就消化完畢。

    但是問題就在於,國際市場對日本威士忌的常態需求究竟如何?日威真有擁有那麼多真愛嗎?其中有多少是投機客造成的假性需求?一旦日威漲勢停滯,熱度退散,他們可能立刻移情別戀,去蹭別的套利工具了。

    這些年暴發戶式的成長,令日威的市場基礎並不如蘇格蘭威士忌穩健夯實,而且眾多新酒廠熟成滿3年的威士忌,都將相繼推出,屆時情況會是如何?現在被頂禮膜拜的滿天神佛,是否會跌下神壇?那些行情虛胖及內容虛假的品牌,是否會降格以求?庫存高築的歷史是否又將重演?

    平成時代經濟泡沫的陰霾,是許多日本人不堪回首的過去,這或許也是日本許多新酒廠產能設計相對保守的原因之一。事實上,日本威士忌的出口金額,已在2023年出現10年來首次下滑,從561億跌至501億日圓,日本威士忌是否泡沫化,相信也是一些酒廠經營者不敢宣之於口的隱憂。

    日本威士忌將續寫神話,或是泡沫化?或許數年間就見分曉!

    《WSD酒訊雜誌》總編輯 Joe Liu
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